January 27, 2022

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The threat of war at the gates of Europe?

It started with videos posted on social media. They show columns of armor advancing into western Russia towards the Ukrainian border. Other pictures show trains carrying dozens of Russian tanks to the same area.

No doubt: Russia has resumed a broader military presence within its Ukrainian neighbors’ gun range. Moscow sees Ukraine as part of its sphere of influence and has been pressuring the country since the election of pro-Western leaders in 2014. Kiev fears an invasion by the end of winter.

According to Ukrainian military intelligence, Russia has already amassed about 92,000 men on the border with Ukraine. Russia already exists “Military training begins near Ukraine” And is in process “Test your communications”Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksi Resnikov told parliament.

The Ukrainians are planning a possible Russian offensive in late January or early February. The operation will begin with air and artillery strikes, followed by air and water strikes.

The Pentagon has confirmed Keep proof Russian occupation plans against Ukraine. Washington hopes Russia can Mobilize 175,000 people, As well as tanks, artillery and other equipment to attack Ukraine. To this end, Russia is deploying 100 battalions as tactical teams. The Russian military has also launched a plan to mobilize reservists to help build the necessary forces.

Satellite imagery showing new units arriving at various locations along the Ukrainian border and in annexed Crimea is based on US analysis among others. The magazine published a map The Pentagon says Russian forces are concentrated in four areas.



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Satellite image dated November 1 shows troops stationed near the Russian city of Yelnia, near Ukraine. © AFP / Satellite image 2021 Maxar Technologies

Is this rape necessary? Lead to armed conflict ? U.S. officials have not made any progress on the matter. “We do not know whether President Putin has decided to invade.”, Ukraine, US Secretary of State Anthony Blingen agreed at the NATO meeting. “We know he has the means to act quickly if he makes a decision.”

According to Anthony Blingen, Russian programs are not the only ones offering “Large-scale military operations”, But “Attempts to destabilize Ukraine from within”. President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zhelensky receives information about a planned coup “Some in Russia” And a Ukrainian oligarchy.

April exercises, a costume rehearsal?

However, this military mobilization was not the first: in April, Russia had already stationed about 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border for training, which was then justified in response to the action. “Threat” Of NATO. Ukraine was also panicked by an imaginary immediate invasion.

Moscow withdrew most of its troops after the announcement of the first summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his US President Joe Biden. According to experts, Russia wanted to show its muscles in a strong position as the meeting approached.

The same tactics can be used to influence Moscow New meeting between the two leaders today, Tuesday. But Ukrainian leaders do not believe it: they fear that the mobilization last spring was only a dress rehearsal for what awaits them. These exercises will help the Russian military to be ready for a real operation now.

Russia points to Ukrainian threat

Moscow vehemently denies allegations of invasion products From Ukraine. Russia accuses Ukraine of being a threat. The Kremlin condemns the strengthening of Ukrainian military capabilities in the east of the country.

According to Moscow, 125,000 Ukrainian soldiers are near Russian borders and areas under the control of pro-Russian separatists. “The idea that Ukraine is a threat to Russia There will be one Bad humor Unless the situation is so bad “, Anthony Blingen replied.



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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zhelensky will return to the front line with pro-Russian separatist forces on December 6. © AFP / Ukrainian Presidential Press Service

Russian officials are scared above all else See NATO expanding to its borders. In a lengthy article published in July, the Russian president accused Western nations of fomenting anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine. Russians and Ukrainians are emerging “A people”, Written by Vladimir Putin. “We will never allow our historic territories and those close to us and the people who live there to be used against Russia.”, Warned.

A few days ago, Vladimir Putin criticized the West for arranging military exercises in the Black Sea and supplying weapons to Kiev. The Kremlin master now wants to get “Legal guarantees” Against extending NATO eastward. Russia wants to prevent Ukraine from joining the group, which it considers a threat.

13,000 people have died since 2014

In 2014, in response to a pro-Western government visit to Kiev, Russia annexed the Ukrainian peninsula from Crimea. The city of Donbass in eastern Ukraine has been captured by armed pro-Russian separatist groups. Despite its denials, the Kremlin is considered the godfather of separatists and is accused of providing them with men and weapons. More than 13,000 people have died in eastern Ukraine since 2014.

Although the Ukrainian military was unable to cope in 2014, it now seems to be more optimistic, accumulating war experience and more well-armed, especially thanks to the help of Western allies. In particular, Ukraine received ammunition, ships, American javelin anti-tank missiles and medical supplies from the United States. Kiev also used the first fighter jet provided by Turkey last month.

On the same topic …

JT on 24/11/2021

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