November 30, 2022


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Brazilians at the polls for the presidential election: Bolsonaro – Lula, what elements could tip the ballot?

Rejection of the other candidate is usually a fundamental factor in voting. Four years ago, Jair Bolsonaro won the election, stoking the hatred and rejection of the left who had ruled Brazil for 13 years. Today, he evokes the same negative emotions in a segment of the electorate that rejects his regime and his ultra-conservative ideology.

“AlsoSebastien Antoine explains, Bolsonaro still retains his electoral base. 30 to 35% of voters who wore 4 years ago. This voter turnout is still high. It also included a segment of the electorate mobilized against the corruption scandals framed by Lula.

Whoever raises a wave of weak rejection will win the election.

It must be said that Brazilian society is very polarized: on the one hand, the anti-Bolsonarians and on the other, the opposition, referring to Lula’s political family, the Workers’ Party.

“In 2018, we didn’t have antibolsonarism, but resistance, and an election against everything and everyone…Bolsonaro won by including the anti-establishment elements”Sociologist and political scientist Paulo Bia analyzes, Professor of Political Science at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. But this time, it will be the one who raises the wave of weak rejection who will win the election., he adds. According to a recent poll, Jair Bolsonaro’s disapproval rating is 50%, while Lula’s disapproval rating is 46%.

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