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According to an Odoxa poll for the Observatory, the outgoing president is leading with 25% of voting intentions, while Eric Gemmore lost two points a month over RN candidate Marine Le Pen.
Eric Zemmor will get 14% of the vote (-2 points) and will be behind Marine Le Pen (18%, fixed) in the first round of the election. If the LR candidate is Xavier Bertrand, the latter will receive 12% (-1 point) in 4th place.
If Valérie Pécresse were the LR candidate, he would be in 4th place with 9% (+0.5 points), the rebellious candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon (8.5%). Macron will get 25% of the vote (-1.5 points), Marine Le Pen 18.5% (+0.5 points) and Eric Gemmore 14.5% (-2 points).
LR candidate Michael Barnier received 9% of the vote, Emmanuel Macron 25%, Marine Le Pen 19% and Eric Zemor 14.5%.
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is in the lead, but still less than 10% (8.5% with Xavier Bertrand, 9% with Michael Barnier).
Ecologist Yannick Jadot (hypothesized 6.5 to 7%) performs better than Anne Hidalko, given 4.5% to 5%.
According to all scenarios, including Arnaud Montebourg, all other candidates tested will receive less than 4% of the vote.
Voting intentions do not predict the outcome of the ballot. On the day of the survey they represent the balance of power and dynamics.
The Odoxa survey was conducted online from November 5 to 8 on a representative sample of 3,005 French people aged 18 and over, including 2,756 registered voters.
But the voting intentions in this study are established by the fact that those registered on the voter list go to the polls and express their intention to vote, i.e., an estimated 1,917 to 1,946 people. The margin of error between plus or minus 1.0 and 2.1 points.
According to another Elabe study for BFMTV, Eric Zemmour ranges from 13 to 15%. If Valerie Begresse or Michael Barnier is the candidate on the right, he has 2 points and Mr. He also loses 1 point with Bertrand. He is behind Marine Le Pen, who is given 17 to 18%, 25 to 30% ahead of Emmanuel Macron.
On the right, Xavier Bertrand 13%, Valerie Beckress 11%, Michael Barnier 9%, Eric Ciot 5%, and Philip Juin 4%.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the left is 8 to 9%, Yannick Jadot 7 and 8% and Anne Hidalgo 5 and 6%.
No other candidate has more than 2%.
The Elabe referendum was held on November 10 and 11 on a sample of representatives of 1,484 French people aged 18 and over, including 1,352 registered voters. The margin of error between points 1.1 and 3.0.
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