January 30, 2023


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How will the Govt infection develop in the coming months? Reasons for optimism and reasons for concern

Between the desire to believe it and the fear of further disappointments, the world is wondering when it will turn the page on Govt-19. But it is difficult to predict the consequences of an epidemic that has already exceeded the prognosis.

Green: Reasons for optimism

In Europe, after the peaks caused by the epidemic delta variation, the solution seems to be found.

Globally, the WHO noted, for the week of September 6, “the first significant drop in weekly cases over two months”. “The number of weekly cases (3.6 million) and deaths (60,000) continues to decline worldwide” in the week of September 13, with its last point being the Tuesday evening event.

In more affluent countries, the vaccine is advancing.

“I think most of the planet, including Europe and the United States, is entering the final stages of the epidemic,” said Franுவாois Paulox, a Twitter professor at University College London recently. “There will be epidemics in the coming months and years, but I do not expect waves that are comparable to the waves we have experienced in the last 18 months,” he added. “What we notice is the transition from tidal wave to a more disturbed rotational regime, with less strength,” archaeologist Mircia Sofonia told AFP. This development, as Denmark did on September 10, prompts many European countries to relax or relax their sanctions.

“In two weeks or three weeks, we will know whether the Danish experience will inspire,” archaeologist Antoine Flaholt told AFP. We know if it is possible to recommend to other European countries to promote the extended use of health passes and even to re-introduce them at the event, without even the immediate risk of an epidemic recurrence. Recovering contaminants. “

Orange: Reasons to be careful

Despite current progress, the outcome of the epidemic is not yet in sight, most scientists believe, shot by previous disappointments. “Even though this is very true for the entire planet, even in the most vaccinated parts of the world,” says British virologist Julian Tang, who points out to the AFP that “significant imbalances in terms of the vaccine are important.” Have received, “says Antoine Flohalt.

In addition, “In the case of many parts of the planet, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, Africa, Asia, Israel and the United States (Canada, El Salvador, Belize ..) the epidemic of rapid growth cannot be said to be behind us.” And the rich, highly vaccinated Even in the countries, it is not said that the current recession will continue. This supports groups indoors, especially as the temperature drops in the northern hemisphere, so the cycle of the virus can start again. “Overall, it looks a bit more favorable than mid-summer, but be wary of the situation in Europe and North America in the middle of autumn,” warns Mircia Sofonia. “What we remember about this epidemic is its unpredictability,” recalled Antoine Floholt. “No one predicted the appearance of delta variation in India last spring, however this type is feared for evolution.”

Red: Reasons to worry

The delta variant now dominates the world. Although it is particularly contagious, it does not prevent vaccines: although they are less effective against infections, they are effective against severe forms of the disease.

But it will not last. “If a mutation in the delta variant causes more resistance to existing vaccines, this would call into question the current favorable development,” explains Professor Flahold. “Furthermore, a very large proportion of the population in poor countries is not vaccinated, which can lead to big waves and the emergence of new variants in these countries,” he adds. “Until this virus spreads more widely somewhere in the world, we can not really be safe from further waves. Global security now has an urgent need to vaccinate as many people as possible on Earth.”

It is difficult to withstand subsequent new waves, especially since health systems have been tested since the onset of the epidemic.

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