August 8, 2022


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In 1972, an MIT model predicted the decline of our civilization by 2040, so far it was (almost) not wrong.

The catastrophic fire, the rapidly spreading corona virus epidemic, the catastrophic floods and other climatic disturbances associated with global warming, many of us could not have imagined facing a few years ago. Yet, in the distant 1972, a small group of American researchers anticipated this catastrophic situation.

In their title ” Limitations for growth “, These scientists insisted that humanity Economic growth continued regardless of environmental costs, and it was going straight against the wall. And without a radical change in behavior, declining food availability, depletion of natural resources and widespread pollution will affect the quality of life on Earth in the most violent and protracted decades, so that the human population will already decline drastically. Half of the 21st century.

Far from esoteric or conspiratorial apocalyptic predictions

This book is not out of the Golden Sixties in the United States, not yet in the first oil crisis, “he said.Friendly meadows“Was initially accused of being a disaster and has been the subject of much controversy (which did not prevent it from becoming a best seller).Limits to growth ” Were far from the most popular zodiacal apocalyptic predictions at the time. These predictions are the result of highly scientific and intensive modeling.

To come to these conclusions, four authors (Lawns, meadows, randers and behrens) actually used a simulation model, World 3, Jay Wright, who was a renowned professor at the time, was inspired by Forrester’s work Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), The father of computer dynamics and the forerunner of computer simulation Relationships between population, industrial growth, food production and limits Ecosystems Landscape with sound WorldOne.

My action on World One de Jay Forrester:

Then based on the statistical data collected The beginning of the 20th century and related to five factors (population, resources, industrial production, pollution and food), so researchers developed using different developmental conditions World3 By differentiating assumptions about innovation, non-renewable resources or social priorities. Although different scenarios appear, the darker ones, which resulted in a greater population decline, are in fact very much in line with the actual evolution of the last 50 years.

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Under the “business as usual” (BAU) scenario, nothing will change in behavior, in fact it is predicted that global well-being levels will decline by 2020 and by 2040. The role of the era is not resources and climate

More relevant

Because, if we talk again today about this work and its results, it seems like a disaster, it’s a thank you A contemporary reinterpretation of the World3 model. Gaya Branderhorst Herrington, a consultant to a valuable auditing and consulting firm, actually repeated the 1972 calculations. Including empirical data from the last 50 years.

4 pictures

The four scenes, designed by World3, are now BAU2, “Business 2 as usual”, very much in line with the reality of the last 50 years. Aya Gaya Herrington

The effect is clear, in the sample scenarios, which fits very well with the empirical data, so the most relevant to the reality include the decline of the population and the recession in industrial and agricultural production.

4 pictures

The BAU2 model, “business as usual”, is by far the most relevant to reality. Aya Gaya Herrington

One thing is for sure, economic growth is likely to face a sharp recession in the next two decades. An analysis consistent with the predictions of the IMF that humanity is on the verge of imposing limits on its development, these changes are unpredictable.

World3’s full contemporary review:

There is hope

However, not all hope was lost. A drastic change in behavior is always possible even if the window of time is narrowly reduced to achieve this paradigm reversal that is not at the center of uncontrolled development. This is the Sustainable World (SW) scene, where man voluntarily stabilizes his economic growth and succeeds in creating a sustainable society.

Graphically, LIndustrial growth and the world population begin to fluctuate after the change of these values. Meanwhile, the availability of food to meet the needs of the world’s population continues to increase. Pollution decreases until it practically disappears. The scarcity of natural resources is also beginning to stabilize.

4 pictures

Rational management of resources according to the Sustainable World (SW) model will eliminate pollution and prevent the decline of our society. All rights reserved

If he wants to believe that he can live on earth for a few more centuries, Man must therefore create a society in which he and he must set limits to the production of material goods in order to achieve a state of equilibrium, otherwise he runs the risk of drowning. A situation reminiscent of a novel “Side“of William Gibson, Pope of Cyberpunk Literature, in which society is slowly but inevitably heading towards the decline caused by climate change and epidemics. Those who are more optimistic “Very good so far. (What is the problemThere is Not here Tube, c ‘There is Landing)“. It leaves an edge.

A project was developed on the initiative of the Rome Club

Initially, the idea of ​​modeling the evolution of the world, emerged from Rome Club. This organization, created in 1968, is still active Thinkers, former heads of state, scientists and UN experts have been aiming to understand the global challenges facing mankind for more than 50 years and to propose solutions through scientific analysis, communication and advocacy. During its assembly in 1970, it was decided to produce the Meadows Report, which created the meadow. “Limitations of growth“.

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