October 7, 2022


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Six months before the French presidential election, the fight between Macron and Le Pen stumbles The world

Six months before the presidential election, the issue of Eric Zemmore disrupting the race for Elysee casts doubt on the announced remake of the 2017 fight between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen.

Nearly thirty candidates are vying in the starting line-up, with only a fraction of the 500 sponsorships for the Republican presidential election not available to the precious sesame Emmanuel Macron and Eric Gemmore. Yet officially declared themselves.

At this point, the polls confirm that Emmanuel Macron is one after the other, no matter what the structures, practically everything gives him back the winner. On the other hand, being Marine Le Pen in the second round is losing ground.

“All investigations so far have shown that the French have decided to face the two challenges of 2017 head-on, and that the Macron-Le Pen competition will be re-run with a slightly different balance,” explains political scientist Pascal Perrinov. Professor of Sciences Bow, to whom “2017 has not changed” appeared.

The Rise of Gemmore

No one else is to blame for the uprising, with Eric Zemmore continuing to rise in the election, one of whom put him first for the first time this week in the second round with 17 to 18% of the vote behind Emmanuel. Macron (24 to 27%).

According to Frederick Toby, director of the Ipoh Opinion Pole, Ms. Le Pen now appears to be “relatively weak.” The RN candidate was already in doubt after campaigning in the second round in 2017 “, when he missed the debate against Emmanuel Macron.

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“Eric Zemmore is from Cherokee, not from the political class, and seems to be well versed in decapitation. He plays it, he plays more and he plays again,” Perrinov said.

Conclusion: Under the Chemmore effect, the ticket for the second round becomes more accessible: “With the fragmented election offer, it automatically decreases,” Mr. Toby noted, recalling that Jean-Marie Le Pen reached the second round on April 21, 2002 with 16.8% of the vote.

Bertrand in ambush

Will this fall in tickets benefit candidates other than Eric Gemmore? Since the right-wing will not nominate its candidate until the beginning of December, it is difficult to make decisions for now. For Mr. Perrina, nothing has been decided, including the second round.

However, activists say Mr. They will not nominate their candidate from Bertrand until December 4, if he agrees to submit it, either Valerie Beckres, Michael Barnier or Eric Sioti. As for the Left, many candidates are not out on the ballot for now, which puts them at risk of facing a “third April 21”, which Mr Toby warns will be eliminated from the second round in 2017 and 2002. “We have never had a weak left coalition like 25-27%. According to Mr. Perineau, it is” fragmented. “There can be no leader. In a few weeks, we have the impression that the Left has used all possible tactics, but nothing has worked, ”he observes.

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