July 2, 2022


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Sunday’s Assembly election in France: Is Emmanuel Macron losing his presidential majority?

Emanuel Macron and his ministers have pushed all their forces into battle in recent days: the French president’s majority in the National Assembly is under threat. The French may already approve or limit the room for the maneuver of their re-elected president.

Voters frequently return to the polls for the assembly elections on Sunday, June 12 and 19. Considered as Third round Presidential election. On April 24, Emmanuel Macron defeated far-right candidate Marin Le Pen by 58.5% of the vote.

Together against the News

Today, it is known as the Coalition of Organizations that Supports Emmanuel Macron (LREM, Modem, Horizons and Agir). Its main enemy is called NUPs (New Popular, Environmental and Social Union). This unprecedented coalition unites left-wing parties (insurgents, socialists, ecologists and communists).

Recent polls suggest that both camps received practically 26-28% of the vote in the first round on June 12. BFMTV and Express Slots 27% for the group and Nupes 26.5% for the Elabe poll released on Friday. The Ipsos-Chopra poll, broadcast by Radio France and French Televisions on Thursday, attributed 28% of voting intentions to News and 27% to the group.

Tension in the presidential camp

This uncertainty explains the tension The occupier of the presidential camp thought that his absolute majority in the legislature was guaranteed. With the two-round single-member voting system, although it is difficult to achieve seat predictions, this is no longer the case.

The organization supports well-established parties throughout France and imposes fines on smaller parties. In the absence of a candidate who receives more than 50% of the vote, the second round opposes the first two candidates and the candidate who receives at least 12.5% ​​of the vote, which often leads to fights. Estimating vote exchanges between two rounds is risky.

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Objective: Cap of 289 seats

Polls trying to paint the picture of the next legislature believe that there should always be one first group in parliament. But with 260 to 300 people elected, the committee is uncertain of its absolute majority (289 elected out of 577 seats in the legislature). Without this absolute majority, the Presidential Committee would not be able to vote on its plans without calling for support from outside.

To avoid this situation, the Chief Minister has embarked on a campaign. Emmanuel Macron read the dramatization card, for example questioning France’s role in NATO. “Intensity”, At the time “Where am I talking to Russia, which is massacring civilians in Ukraine?”. He has He asked voters to give him a majority.Loud and clear ” To help him implement his presidential plan.

Allies are needed

If it does not reach the milestone of 289 seats, the group will have to turn left or right to the opposition, structurally or individually, to gain a majority.

On the right, Les Républicains, currently the leading opposition party, will lose half of their elected officials (less than 100 to 55 today) after the defeat of their presidential candidate, Valérie Pécresse. Paradoxically, this election defeat may allow them to play the parliamentary support they need for the Presidential Committee tomorrow and to lovingly negotiate their support.

On the left, the head of Inzumis Jean-Luc Mélenchon established himself as a strong man De la Knobs and the main enemy of the president. He hammered home his ambition to impose a cohabitation on Emmanuel Macron. He wants to be the Prime Minister himself. According to opinion polls, the News does not have an absolute majority.

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“A Success Strategy”

But News, which is uniting left-wing parties for the first time in 25 years, is an event that has garnered attention throughout the campaign. Jean-Luc Mலlenchon’s strategy is to bring the four major left parties into a cohesive coalition and invest this Knobs candidate in each constituency. In contrast, the campaign of the National Rally was almost complete. The president’s majority is limited in its influence. “Pierre Matteo, director of Science-Bo Lill, analyzes.

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally is ten points behind the first two groups, which is 20% of the voting purpose. Nevertheless, it would have multiplied the number of its current seats by only eight delegates in RN 2017.

Cabinet reshuffle

Fourteen ministers from the current government, including the new Prime Minister Elizabeth Bourne, are running in the Assembly elections. This is the first time he has cast his ballot in a Calvados constituency favorable to the outgoing majority. The unelected ministers will have to leave the government, which will lead to more or less significant change depending on the June 19 results.

At the end of a non-emotional election campaign, we expect a high turnout.