November 26, 2022

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Ukraine faces Russian strategy of “unsustainable war”.

to analyze. If you cannot win the battle, make it unbearable for your enemy. More than two hundred and fifty days since its inception “Special Military Operation” In Ukraine, Russia has grasped the facts: Despite vastly superior firepower to the troops at Q, and forced mobilization of hundreds of thousands of soldiers, its military cannot achieve victory on the ground, at least for the next few months.

Moscow’s troops have not advanced further since Lisitsansk’s capture of the cities of Severodonetsk at the beginning of summer in the Donbass. Instead, the Russian military is now struggling to contain Ukrainian forces, which are gradually regaining ground lost in the first months of the offensive. In October, Kyiv reclaimed nearly 3,000 square kilometers of territory in the country’s northeast and south. Today, Russia occupies only 17% of Ukraine, down from nearly 25% in March at the height of its offensive.

Faced with this slow but real decay, Vladimir Putin decided to change his strategy. As Russian gunners kept up the pressure on the battlefield, firing 60,000 shells each day, ten times more than their opponents, Moscow began a campaign of strikes on infrastructure behind Ukrainian cities in early autumn. Power stations and substations, district heating networks, telecommunication equipment, etc., front lineā€¦ On October 31, about sixty cruise missiles and suicide drones again fell on Ukrainian cities, especially in the capital city of Kiev, which deprived two thirds of drinking water. Then supply was restored.

“Create a Humanitarian Disaster”

The objective of these strikes was not military. Ukrainian troops are concentrated in the east and south of the country, far from the target cities. Their operations are little hampered by power outages: command centers have their own generators and are often mobile and redundant. Same thing with logistics. While the Russians rely mainly on railroads to supply their troops, the Ukrainians use trains, trucks, and cars interchangeably, which affects their supply less. Since February 24, the Russian army has destroyed 270 bridges and 20,000 kilometers of road, but this has not hindered the Ukrainians.A French military source confirms it.

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